Headlines like this

I get back home from a days work battling out numbers all day,I run through the news channels it was fun watching headlines in India's top Business channel NDTV PROFIT.
"MARKETS TO BOTTOM OUT@11000.SECULAR LONG TERM OUTLOOK POSITIVE ON INDIA"Wow this to me is like somebody telling me 2020 is a leap year and February would have 29 days in it.I should confess that the trip on this news was orgasmic,and was more than a confirmation on business channels crap.My friend a google analyst speaks about bounce rate on blogs and spicing up news to deliver it hot.I do not know if this is what she suggested, I'd rather preach sense than spicing up.
JK a trader friend of mine when I say "I am bullish/bearish on a counter "pounces on me will it happen today??Markets are unpredicatble and governed by randomness and no one can predict all the irregular curves that are to be formed.But that to me does not justify marvellously vague predictions like these headlines.
What is more funny is the analyst's calls& programs in these channels,If somebody ever had a systematic review on these calls cartoon network would improve its TRP ratings.
No one ever were close to talking about a correction on the nifty in Jan let aside a crash.And the best part is the disclaimer "We are not responsible for profit or loss ..........".
Channels should be more accountable and sensible on what they speak.
Last week Bloomberg had published an obituary column on Steve Jobs for a few minutes I suppose,Others followed suit .Steve was seriously ill in the hospital and might have been attending a board meeting on his new iphone 3g .Too err is human but to copy it is superhuman.
Welcome to the world of media the socially irresponsible goons.

MNC bank exits retail assets business in India

Global major Standard chartered Bank exited the unsecured Personal loan business and the cards business in India on Friday.The management reasoned negative operating margins in these businesses to their employees for the exit,High interest rates round the corner &incidental voumes which are unsustainable Mr.Neeraj swaroop is heading in the right direction. News is around the corner that Stanc is looking at closing all retail business and focus on corporate financing.The bank seems to be oblivious about the fate of its employeees.What is notable is Stanc,HSBC,GE and a host of other banks were forced to exit the auto business when rates where as low as 7%.
The Indian retail market by and large has been a price driven market by leaders like ICICI (Mr.K.V.Kamath's baby)&HDFC.Banks were disbursing unsecured loans in less than a day ,based on credit records,past relationships distributing it faster than Coke or Pepsi.Banks were extending credit based on past track records(surrogate products)validating cash flows based on outflows rather than inflows and were absolutely clueless about factoring in economic slow down, future cash flows and weighing risk on the whole.Credit scoring and risk analysis would have been latin and greek to Indian credit buyers.
Rising rates ,stringent credit norms by all banks,technology in place for credit history checks credit off take in itself has slowed down considerably,Volumes in the market has dropped atleast by 50% in the first half of this year.
With cof climbing everyday and MNC banks finding it difficult to raise cheaper capital @home and abroad others too will soon fall like apack of cards.What would be interesting to watch is ,how late entrant Barclays bank shapes up their retail porfolio in the next few quarters. Homeloan Interest rates expected to touch as high as 18%,stringent credit norms,optimum due diligence &technology in the foray The great Indian credit squeeze is on its way.

NIfty outlook

Nifty @4529 a whooping 700 points from the lows of 3800's.Is the market set to rally and all the bearishness has ended??.With crude trading below 118 dollars per barrell off from the highs of July 11 does that mean all pains are over??A look at the one year chart tells us that markets could have made a double top at 4620 and reversing from there.And after all markets have rallied 700 points and it makes sense to book profits. While crude might continue to fall that to me is no reason why markets should go up.Crude as a commodity would continue to fall with an economic slow down across the globe.When I rewind back at the bull run between 2004 to 2008,with markets trading on 22 times forward earnings,it was just the gush of money that was chasing paper.With interest rates on the higher side retail slow down in India most banks exiting select retail business the next 12 to 18 months isn't gonna be all that rosy.Interest rate sensitive sectors like Auto and two wheelers would have to part away with profits to keep up the shop floor running.Every up move could be viewed as an opportunity to exit or build short positions on the F&O side.Needless to say banking and brokerages would continue face the brunt of the pain in the current scenario.Power & infrastructure have always been long term and would show little recovery in such bearish conditions.With the dollar regaining its strength frontline IT and pharma stocks could be good bets in the medium term,Buying on dips in these stocks should deliver upto 40% returns on a one year time frame.Having said all that with the Nifty unable to breach the 4620 mark there is definitely more pain in the days to come.

Market scenario

Inflation at double figures,interest rates climbing higher day by day,Credit norms tightened ,Retail slowdown,Oil on boil.Guess nothing looks positive and the India inc story looks to be falling like a pack of cards.Well everything that goes up has to come down,Thats the wierd rule of markets, for people who were not part of the party for the last four years I guess they would be telling their near ones and dear ones "I told u"perhaps with high fives.Well every economy does follow a cycle and thats what is happening,the era of cheaper credit could be over,and the worst is yet to come,Perhaps real estate is waiting by the sidelines for crashing.To me as I rewind , in a country where 2 decades ago color TVs was an amusing phenomena and cars were next to impossible,India inc has moved by leaps and bounds in terms of reaching world class services to the common man be it mobile or a Maruti car,products and services today are available to the masses and not just the classes.The current economic slow down when looked back i believe is no slow down at all.Well the past is no benchmark at all,there are still millions in this country who do not have accesses to basic amenities like water,shelter, food and children who cannot afford primary education.While the urban youth in this country might crib and whine about bad roads, hike in gas prices,most of us fail to understand, even look at where we come from.Global slow down in terms of U.S banks melting down writing down billions of dollars in subprime losses will surely have an effect of India,but sooner or later the west has to end the quest for supremacy.The millenium definitely belongs to India.