Nifty Outlook

As expected last week markets held 5100 levels with a profit booking session of 130 points on Monday.Nevertheless the market surprised on the upside with a break out above the 200dma 5200 level and smartly rallied for the week to end at 5325.85.Will markets extend the sur-price for the week too?The key Fibonacci level retracement of 161.8% from 4531 levels is at 5450 levels.Also in the medium term chart 5350-5400 on a closing basis continues to be key resistance ever since the correction from Aug 5,2011.The markets could make a triple top @5350-5400 levels and see some round of correction back to 5050-5100 levels before moving ahead further.With the overall sentiment being positively biased, markets should hold 5050-5100 levels in the near term.Any further sell off could be triggered by unprecedented global news flows.

NIfty Outlook for the week

Having tested the key resistance of 5200 the index managed to close marginally above 5200.Market could see lack lustre movement for the week with upside capped at current levels.On Friday the index managed to test the 200 dma of 5218 and traded side ways for the rest of the day.Immediate support would be at 5100 and 5050 levels.With the index itself having rallied around 700 points the market would book profits for the week.With the earnings season coming to a close this week and lack of triggers in the domestic front, markets would consolidate for some time to come.Crucial support for the nifty would be around 4900-4950 any sell off below these levels could see a sharp rally on the downside.For traders strategy needs to move from index to stock specific trades.While it is advisable to buy puts at current levels one needs to have a watch on the time value as we are in a consolidation phase.The February series could spring a surprise with a tight range of 5050-5200.On the global side news flow from Iran and Europe could dictate the trend.

Nifty outlook

The market seems to be inching upwards trading above the 5000 mark in 13 odd trading sessions for the first time. The rupee has been trading around the 50 mark gaining massively in a very short span of time adding to the cheer on dalal street. Reliance is considering a buy back and Food inflation is in the negative territory .On the Global front U.S economy is on the recovery mode and there has been muted responses from the Euro area. Is it time to change strategies on the Nifty and go Net long on the index does it make you feel there was never a better time to buy??. As a market player we all know there is always a day fro us in the market and there is never a beginning or end. The Nifty is currently trading above the 10,20, 50dma and is expected to face immediate resistances around the 5100 and 5200 mark. A immediate close above 5100 in the next 2 trading sessions could see and expiry around 5200 levels or at least testing of 5200 levels. However with markets being extremely overbought at current levels could mean a sell off at these levels to retest 4600. Buying of out of the money February puts as protection could prove sensible and keep lady luck smiling. Having stuck in a range for the last 6 odd months between 4600 and 5200 levels, this year could see the range being broken either ways. Sustained buying with improved investor sentiment can happen only above 5700 levels or around 3700 levels. Budget expectations on the domestic front could put an end to all the policy paralysis would set the stage for the year. The banking space could pull the index down in the next two quarters testing fresh lows with default being the buzz word. Nevertheless if not on January 24th some day the Central Bank will start cutting rates the economy will grow and Indian markets will outperform will make stock picking simpler and safer.

Key events before expiry :Reliance results-January 20,2012 ,RBI Meet-January 24,2012

Nifty outlook

Having bottomed out at 4531 the market has smartly rallied to 4860 levels for the week. After a consolidation between the 4600 and 4800 finally the market has broken the 4800 levels. The current up move has held the key fibonacci levels of 4800,and the market could continue to move up to 4980 levels. With results around the corner and guidance expected to be tempered the market continues to be a sell on rise market. The current upmove would fizzle out at 4980 levels and the market could continue its next leg of downtrend testing 4600 levels again. While global economic outlook could continue to be depressed by the Euro outlook, On the domestic front triggers can be expected post UP elections and budget. The earnings season by and large would set the pace for the month and the index could continue to be stuck in the band of 4600-4900 in the near term. Any further sell off late in the quarter would be dictated by domestic events and earnings revisions. The IT pack continues to be weak post Infosys results with a poor guidance despite the rupee depreciating by 20%. Given the current trend a 20% downside from current levels looks obvious.