Nifty outlook

Having bottomed out at 4531 the market has smartly rallied to 4860 levels for the week. After a consolidation between the 4600 and 4800 finally the market has broken the 4800 levels. The current up move has held the key fibonacci levels of 4800,and the market could continue to move up to 4980 levels. With results around the corner and guidance expected to be tempered the market continues to be a sell on rise market. The current upmove would fizzle out at 4980 levels and the market could continue its next leg of downtrend testing 4600 levels again. While global economic outlook could continue to be depressed by the Euro outlook, On the domestic front triggers can be expected post UP elections and budget. The earnings season by and large would set the pace for the month and the index could continue to be stuck in the band of 4600-4900 in the near term. Any further sell off late in the quarter would be dictated by domestic events and earnings revisions. The IT pack continues to be weak post Infosys results with a poor guidance despite the rupee depreciating by 20%. Given the current trend a 20% downside from current levels looks obvious.